AI won’t take all of the content jobs. But it might take 30%. Here’s how.

There is no getting around it - by replacing some of the work with machines you’re also replacing some of the people.

Many marketers and content creators are decrying the idea that AI can replace their work. But denying its looming impact won’t diminish it. 

AI has the potential to significantly challenge both the raison d'etre of the search industry and the head count that the industry can support.

I agree with folks who posit that AI tools will best partner with humans, rather than wholly replace them (at least for now). But, there is no getting around it - by replacing some of the work with machines you’re also replacing some of the people.

For content creators, this is probably most true in scaled, production-style environments (basically: creative and/or content agencies, or large, in-house content teams), where creative work is produced through prescriptive processes associated with productized content deliverables. 

I spent most of my career managing in these environments and I wanted to break down the math of exactly how the current iterations of generative AI might reduce headcount. I’m not trying to freak anyone out - I wanted to illustrate the numbers to make the likely influence of AI a little more tangible (and maybe, therefore, less scary?).

As an example, let’s consider the potential impact on a small-to-medium-size agency’s copywriting team, should they adopt an AI tool like ChatGPT. Here we go:

A Writer Uses AI to Create a Rough Draft
Presume that the first outline/loose draft of a piece of content is about 30% of its total production time. If approximately 10 total hours are allotted to that piece of work, an AI-generated first draft/outline saves the writer about 3 hours.

The Writer Still Does Most (70%) of the Work
This presumes that the writer would still spend about 7 hours revising, enlivening, adding to, fact-checking, and polishing the copy.

At Scale, that Proportionally Reduces Costs - and Likely Headcount
Across, say, an expected 3 pieces per writer per week (that’s a very modest estimate), the AI work is saving about 9 hours per writer per week. Multiply that across 25 writers and that is 225 total hours per week - or 5.6 full-time staff members' worth of time - that is now auto-generated by AI. That means that with AI suppport, a team of 19.4 writers can do the work that previously required 25 writers.

What do these numbers mean?
Some businesses will likely note the rough time savings above and encourage staff to apply it toward higher quality work or just embrace the extra breathing room. Others will do the math and decide to reduce headcount (via layoffs or managed attrition). 

There will also be decisions to make about how AI-supported content impacts billable hours or deliverable prices. (Cut price points to get a little more competitive? Or maintain price points, cut staff, or rework creative output expectations and hope for slightly better margins?)

I expect we’ll see a trend toward slightly smaller teams that, in addition to creating content, also review, fact-check, refine, and edit large-ish quantities of AI-generated content. In line with that, we could anticipate more “Content Facilitator/Editor” style job titles popping up. 

A caveat is that this is all based on the capabilities of free-ish, beta versions of these tools. This tech will likely improve at a breathtaking velocity capable of cannibalizing a significant volume of jobs and revenue opportunities. ChatGPT is already the fastest-growing consumer application in history and it’s less than 5 months old.  

But, even if AI (somehow?) doesn’t cut into content marketing jobs, the move to remote work has created a global marketplace of staff for US-based employers. Next week, I write about how international contractors impact job growth and security for US-based professional service workers. 

If this is stressing you out: I get it. I think the content industry is in for a rough ride over the next couple of years. But there are many proactive, tangible steps that US-based content creators who are concerned about these updates can take. I’m working on a send that details them as helpfully as possible - so stay tuned for that. And, if you have questions, thoughts, or hot takes on any of the above I’d love to hear them. Thanks for reading.

Are you into this kind of thing? Check out my podcast - also called Content People - wherever you get your podcasts. 

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