Search is evolving in unpredictable ways. Google and SEO-related industries might not keep up.
Is Google's chokehold on the search industry coming to an end? Maybe. Three major factors are making the entire search industry ripe for disruption.
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Today I’m kicking off a four-part series on the disruptive forces poised to impact SEO and content marketing now and in the coming months and years.
The series will cover:
Why Google might actually be in trouble.
AI’s impact on SEO and content.
How the move to fully remote work is impacting job security for US-based workers.
And, on a final and more positive note, how workers can take intentional steps to avoid too much strife as they navigate these forces.
So let’s get into it. Here’s part 1:
Search is evolving in unpredictable ways. Google and SEO-related industries might not keep up.
Is Google's chokehold on the search industry coming to an end? Maybe.
The tech giant is resource-laden and, of course, has the potential to pivot in unexpected and innovative ways. But it’s in an unprecedentedly tight spot.
Three major factors are nipping at Google’s heels and making the entire search industry ripe for disruption:
Gen Z doesn’t Google stuff.
AI searches return answers, not content or SERPs.
AI search is way more expensive to run and Google’s ad-revenue-for-search-results model isn’t set up to accommodate those costs.
Any one of those three forces has the potential to disrupt Google's reign - and significantly impact related industries like SEO, PPC, and search-optimized content. Here’s my breakdown of each:
Gen Z Doesn’t Google. They Use TikTok and Instagram Instead.
In July, Google’s Senior Vice President, Prabhakar Raghavan, spoke plainly at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference about how changes in user search behaviors were significantly reducing traditional Google searches.
“In our studies, something like almost 40% of young people, when they’re looking for a place for lunch, they don’t go to Google Maps or Search,” he said. “They go to TikTok or Instagram.” Raghavan was speaking specifically to internal Google research related to the habits of 18-24-year-olds.
So, people - especially young people - are using Google a lot less (40% is a lot!) and using TikTok more. That means Google has fewer opportunities to serve that demographic ads (so lost revenue for Google) and it means that brands or businesses that would historically try to reach that demographic through PPC or SEO-optimized content might need to pivot and figure out how to reach that same user base across its preferred platforms.
The UX of AI-Powered Search Engines Eliminates SERPs and Reduces the Impact of Content.
Now, additionally, how users interact with SERPs (Search Engine Results Pages) when they do use a search engine might shift significantly when it comes to AI-powered searches through the updated Bing (a stage-5 clinger named Sydney) or Google’s Bard. These tools don’t just serve up links that might answer a question - instead, they eliminate the effective middleman that is SERPs and just provide an answer.
On a recent episode of NPR’s Marketplace, Chirag Shah, a computer science professor at the University of Washington, spoke specifically about how these updated AI-based search engines might impact user behavior.
He said: “Currently what happens with search engines is they [users] go to search engines and search for something, and they are directed to these other websites where they can find their information. But now as Google and Microsoft start giving answers right there on their page, they could potentially cut off all the other places where users could go.”
That means that, if AI search really takes off, optimizing content to perform in SERPs could become a fool’s errand. No one is going to see your content and click on it if they’re not searching for content anymore. They’re asking the robot a question and getting an answer.
Similarly, the first 20ish minutes of February 11th’s Slate Money episode (a good listen) were dedicated to the increasingly unclear future of search and SEO.
“If the chatbot gives you the answer that you’re looking for, very few people will bother actually navigating to the site to get the answer from the site if they’ve already got the answer from Microsoft,” said host, Felix Salmon. “And, as a result, the fear among publishers is that all of their traffic is going to go down, and especially their search traffic is going to go down enormously, because effectively once the search engine has spidered your site, none of the search engine’s users need to actually go to your site - because all of that info lives on the search engine’s servers.”
Google’s Business Model Doesn’t Currently Work with AI-Powered Searches
AI-based searches are very expensive to run. It’s currently estimated that ChatGPT costs approximately $100K per day to maintain. The company, which started as a non-profit and then pivoted its business model, has already introduced a premium subscription that allows paid users faster response times and guaranteed access during high-demand windows.
Google’s biggest money maker is their search functionality, and the model has always been: Cheap (for Google) searches for users, to whom Google then serves up lucrative ads. That is the majority of Google’s revenue. If Google is forced to incorporate high volumes of expensive, AI-powered searches to compete for a user base, either Google ad costs will skyrocket and/or its profit margins will diminish significantly - something it has already been struggling with across its other, non-ad-based divisions. The company made very public layoffs earlier this year and is engaging in cost-cutting measures like desk-sharing for many of its remaining staff.
This search profitability disruption is less problematic for more diversified search players like Microsoft, which is dipping its toes into AI search with Bing’s AI-powered search. The majority of Microsoft’s revenue still comes from its “intelligent cloud” services. The company’s search division falls within the personal computing sector, which includes many other offerings and, in total, only makes up about 35% of the company’s revenue.
If it’s Google vs AI, who will win?
If ever a company had the resources and motivation to innovate quickly or turn the tide, it’s Google. Whether they keep up with the competition, or just squash it, powerful players (like Google and Bing) have an enormous stake in AI not replacing traditional search.
If I was going to get real tin-foil hat about this, I’d ask: Is AI the new electric car? By that I mean: Is AI-based search a viable technology that major industries with competing interests will work to stamp out because of how it would impact their bottom line?
For example, while the viral NYTimes article about Bing’s search engine Sydney wanting to “be alive” was a fun and provocative read, I thought it did Bing’s chat tool a significant disservice, and hinted at an anti-AI bias, by not more fully exploring or reporting on the ways in which Sydney’s responses were to be wholly expected from a predictive language model chatbot that’s likely sourcing conversational responses from a plethora of sci-fi content.
Next Time in Content People: Whether or not AI will significantly disrupt how we search, it certainly has the potential to seriously change how our content is created. Stay tuned for my next send - a breakdown of how generative AI might be folded into the content creation process. And likely reduce the number of creative content jobs. If you have thoughts, opinions, or predictions about this I’d love to hear from you. Just reply to this email to get in touch directly.
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